Corporate Foresight: Towards a Maturity Model for the Future by René Rohrbeck

By René Rohrbeck

Have you puzzled why even huge businesses fail while confronted with adjustments of their surroundings? might you be stunned to profit that the typical existence expectancy of a Fortune 500 corporation is lower than 50 years? This publication offers findings from 19 case stories in multinational businesses reminiscent of Siemens, Volkwagen, normal electrical, Philips and Deutsche Telekom. René Rohrbeck proposes a adulthood version to evaluate how ready an organization is to answer exterior (disruptive) swap. He makes use of info from 107 interviews with board individuals, company strategists, innovation managers, and company foresight execs to provide and speak about top practices. utilizing illustrations to teach the complicated interplay of company foresight with different devices resembling innovation and strategic administration, René Rohrbeck offers the reader with wealthy insights on find out how to make a firm agile and reactive in the direction of switch. For students this publication proposes a number of hypotheses and frameworks for destiny learn.

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4 (continued) Authors, year Data ü ü Type of research Inductive Conceptual Case Deductive Econometric Econometric adaptive planning, and political expediency Identifies four phases of decision making: (1) goal definition, (2) problem identification, (3) alternatives generation, and (4) evaluation and selection Definition of a normative model to propose a certain decision making style, given a certain context. , Cooper 1983:2; Rothwell 1992:232; Rothwell 1994:27). Research on radical innovations searches for capabilities that make it possible to generate discontinuous leaps that will bring about a new generation of products (Sorescu et al.

Richard Leifer calls innovations radical if they can deliver a fivefold to tenfold increase in product performance, if they introduce entirely new product performance measures, or if they introduce a cost reduction of at least 30% (Leifer 1997:134). More recently, the degree of innovativeness has been understood as a four-dimensional measure, with a market, technological, organizational, and environmental dimension (Gem€ unden et al. 2007:410; Gem€unden and Kock 2009:3). In the research on radical innovations, at least four major findings are of interest in the context of corporate foresight.

2 Disruptions Starting from a technological perspective, Christensen built a theory on disruptions that aimed to explain how important performance leaps in technology lead to the failure of large incumbent companies (Christensen 1997). He showed five characteristics of technological disruptions: (1) initial underperformance of emerging technology, (2) new technology generally provides new customer benefit, (3) the emerging technology is first introduced in a niche market, (4) new technology gradually increases performance until it reaches superiority over the established technology and thus is able to capture the mainstream market, and (5) when the new technology reaches superiority the new entrant replaces the incumbent company in the mainstream market.

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